George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
On Monday, we welcomed all employees back to our office after over two years of work-from-home. As most companies might agree, finding a balance between remote and in-office work has been a challenge. However, being at the office with the entire company has been gratifying.
With an eventful first quarter now in the history books, we can safely say that the elevated levels of volatility that we predicted for 2022 are now in play.
Last week, the Federal Reserve made headlines after raising their benchmark interest rate by 0.25%. This week, the Fed remains in the spotlight due to comments made by Chairman Jerome Powell at Monday’s National Association for Business Economics annual conference.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve lifted their key interest rate by 0.25% in the first of six expected rate hikes for this year, and possibly another four proposed increases in 2023. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had indicated that this increase was coming. So, when the stock market rose on Wednesday in response, it was less about the rate hike itself and more about Powell’s language associated with the move.
Our 2022 Investment Outlook features the Superman and Clark Kent theme, a metaphor referencing past extraordinary economic stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the supercharged earnings growth that served as a key tailwind for stocks last year.
While news coverage is understandably focused on the devastation in Ukraine, we remain keenly focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and the companies we follow. We realize that during times of stress markets become disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of the economy, but just like water always finds its equilibrium, markets similarly return to the fundamentals.
The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remained atop the headlines this week and without a doubt have had a material impact on the capital markets.
Some while ago as I was preparing for my first solo overseas flight, I told a friend in the aviation industry that I disliked turbulence; the stomach-churning drops and swings were too sudden and unpredictable for my appetite.
It would appear that the alternative investment industry has the complete focus of the SEC, and it is not hard to see why. Attracted by the high return potential and uncorrelated nature of many alternatives, sophisticated investors from significant pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, family offices and high-net-worth individuals have significantly increased allocations to the asset class over the last few decades.
During our collective years in investment management, we’ve come to use several phrases over and over. Our long-time clients may begin to roll their eyes as we repeat an oft-used phrase, “The Fed is raising rates for the right reason.”
In our Outlook 2022 publication titled "Extraordinary to Ordinary" we highlighted that more volatility would be a feature of 2022. Volatility was extraordinarily high in 2020 during the zenith of the COVID-19 crisis and well below average during the robust economic recovery of 2021. This year we expect an environment of more normal volatility.
The Federal Reserve has maintained near-zero interest rates for nearly two years, and by now, it is clear this extraordinary policy is no longer needed. Over the last several months, continued elevated inflation readings, coupled with a tightening labor market, have led the Fed to suggest rate hikes are coming both sooner and faster than previously expected.
Inflation was front and center this week with the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation of 7% Headline and 5.5% Core (ex Food and Energy) were in line with consensus expectations.
Santa Claus came in the waning days of December and brought his namesake rally. But as the calendar turned, Santa left, and the markets started the year with a stumble.
A key economic data point this week was a flashback to the 1960s with initial unemployment claims at 198,000, which are levels we haven’t seen since that decade.
The holidays are upon us, and at Ferguson Wellman, that means giving thanks, being grateful, staying humble and wishing for the best . And while we take the time to enjoy the festivities, we also keep one eye on the markets to see what lies ahead as the year closes. From now to the end of the year, market participants wait to see what rewards the “Santa Claus Rally” brings.
In one of the most anticipated weeks of monetary policymaking in recent memory, the Bank of England became the first major central bank to raise interest rates off the near-zero bound and the U.S. Federal Reserve laid the groundwork for such a move by proclaiming the impending conclusion of its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus program by next March.
Americans are buying more than ever before. Despite supply actually surpassing above pre-COVID levels and dockworkers unloading ships as fast they can, the supply chain is unable to keep up with record consumer demand. Furthermore, the supply-demand gap may worsen as we head into the peak of holiday shopping season.
This week, volatility returned to capital markets due to the recent emergence of the Omicron variant. Initial reports indicate Omicron shows increased transmissibility and mild symptoms, a “mixed bag” of changes over Delta. And while it will be several weeks before we see a more accurate picture of its impact on human health, capital markets immediately responded with increased stock market volatility and lower interest rates.
After months of debate, President Biden chose to take the bipartisan route nominating Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chairman.
